Sunday, November 18, 2007

Murky world and spooks

Found this on intellibriefs... on Pak. emergency

"Proclamation of Emergency by Gen Musharraf marks the starting of next phase of 'Great Pakistan Democracy Drama' that was staged by General with a great genius and a sort of expertise which he has inherited from his seniors in Army who are well renowned in such tactics.Characters of this play have not only defined new standards of political actingand deceit but also better them on daily basis.Tactics used by Pakistani intelligence and 'Private or Independent Spy Rings'-a relatively new phenomenon- ran by likes of Lt.Gen Hamid Gul(most famous of these rings) and many many other former Intelligence Chiefs to create psychological impact on masses and their competitors is fast nearing perfection.This is modest starting of what will be a horrible phase in Pakistani and Islamic history.Things are very different behind the scenes from what is perceived in Western Media where Democracy talk consumes all the space.Real problem is not democracy.It does not matter to success in War on Terror .Democracy has never been there in Pakistan and is not going to be there . Moreover,it is a great myth that bringing democracy will help win war on terror.Terrorism originating from Pakistan is not a function of Democracy in Pakistan.In past Jehad flourished during democratic governments and at many places so called democrats fuelled it more than Millitary.The real crucial problem that has led to worsening of situation on Terror front in last one year is different.That is increasing radicalisation of Pak Army and 'signs of corrosion' in command and control structure of Intelligence Agencies on account of this.Manifestation of this are these Independent Spy Rings.These private spy rings have infiltrated ISI & IB and have considerable influence on cadres.A substantial number of people in government agencies have linkages with these rings specially in lower ranks although some higher seats are also involved.Some former Generals and former intelligence officers have huge sympathy for Jehadis as throughout their carrer and even after retirement they were closely involved in promoting Jehad Culture and have "personal intrests" in its continuity.These Generals,some elements of Air Force and add to it those 10-15% cadres of ISI and IB;it for sure makes quite an explosive mixture.That's how travel itineraries of some ISI field officers leaked.Few of them were even ambushed and killed.Many buses carrying intelligence staff were bombed.Latest implication of this is that Taliban has 'outsmarted' Pak Army in Swat and NWFP in past few months.Large desertions were witnessed and Army was badly humiliated at the hands of Taliban and Tribals.Morale of troops is quite low and there is little 'will power' left with a soldier to fight Jehadis which is most important thing in counter-insurgency operations.For the first time in last five or so years of Army offensive in NWFP and tribal areas, situation is so much out of hand.These spy rings provide Taliban forces and tribals with 'intelligence' and provide them with "tactical advice" to tackle Pak and NATO forces.NATO forces are increasingly becoming dependent on TechInt and satellite imagery.Western agents find it extremely difficult to operate on ground.Americans are largely dependent on Afghan sources and Saudis or Indians for ground information.Any attempt by American intelligence to gather ground met with stiff ressistance in recent past.There have been numerous instances that when an American Field Officer was trying to set up base with ISI help,suddenly,this information got leaked.Locals demonstrated,stone pelting happened and American chap was left with no other alternative but to leave.Anybody knowing basics of intelligence biz can understand how pathetic and alarming state of affairs this is.These rings are controlled by former spymasters and support of powerful Jehad Complex.This complex has support of influential clergy,landlords and Arab Sheikhs.All of these have large stakes in low cost-high margin business called Jehad.These are alarming signs for stability of Pakistan.Intelligence community in Pakistan is being radicalised and considerable number of cadres are identifying themselves with Jehadis rather than with government.As they say that intelligence agencies are any country's Last Line of Defence but in these patterns in Pakistan's case are alarming and calls for a review by the West of its ploicy towards Pak Army.British are probably already factoring in these facts in their thoughts and statements.Some quarters on Capital Hill are also coming out of Dream Land. Whatever,this in coming days will drag Pakistan into era of instability and more worse security situation will follow.So be ready for more Bling-Bang."

Clash of Margalla Pass, Pakistan

I am back after a long time. A lot of water has flown under the bridge. India's neighborhood is more dangerous than ever. Musharaf has gone berserk losing whatever common sense he had. His army is fighting a war no body in pakistan wants to fight. It is very disturbing to see Taliban style militias havng swathes of land under thier control. Looks like Zia's birds have come to roost finally (For laymen: Zia aka Gen. Zia Ul Haq was the dictator of Pak. from 77-88 under whom pak. became radicalized. The country is still reaping the bitter crop from the seeds of Islamic fundamentalism sown by Zia and co. with the active backing of Reagan's US)

Interestingly why is it that Islam in Pakistan suffers from such an identity crisis? A Natgeo article precisly answers why. I am just reproducing it as it explains it in a manner like I never can.
The article has a nice beginning - Pakistan is indeed situated on a religious fault line:

If there is an address, an exact location for the rift tearing Pakistan apart, and possibly the world, it is a spot 17 miles (28 kilometers) west of Islamabad called the Margalla Pass. Here, at a limestone cliff in the middle of Pakistan, the mountainous west meets the Indus River Valley, and two ancient, and very different, civilizations collide. To the southeast, unfurled to the horizon, lie the fertile lowlands of the Indian subcontinent, realm of peasant farmers on steamy plots of land, bright with colors and the splash of serendipitous gods. To the west and north stretch the harsh, windswept mountains of Central Asia, land of herders and raiders on horseback, where man fears one God and takes no prisoners.This is also where two conflicting forms of Islam meet: the relatively relaxed and tolerant Islam of India, versus the rigid fundamentalism of the Afghan frontier. Beneath the surface of Pakistan, these opposing forces grind against each other like two vast geologic plates, rattling teacups from Lahore to London, Karachi to New York. The clash between moderates and extremists in Pakistan today reflects this rift, and can be seen as a microcosm for a larger struggle among Muslims everywhere. So when the earth trembles in Pakistan, the world pays attention. The more radical madrassas were built and funded for the war against the Soviets in the 80s, and it is through these madrassas, that the Taliban (literally, students) later arose.

During the 1980s, as the mujahideen prevailed against the Soviets in Afghanistan, the winds of extremism blowing from the northwest began to chill all of Pakistan. Millions of dollars from Saudi Arabia flowed into the hard-line Sunni madrassas clustered along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, which eventually spread across Pakistan. Not all Pakistani madrassas today are fundamentalist or radical. Some are shoestring operations run by moderate clerics to meet the educational needs of the poor. But the majority—more than 60 percent—are affiliated with the fundamentalist Deobandi sect, an austere interpretation of Islam that calls for a rejection of modernity and a return to the "pure," seventh-century Islam of the Prophet Muhammad. Politically savvy and extremely well funded, more than 10,000 of these schools operate across Pakistan today, compared with fewer than 1,000 before General Zia took power. Thousands more operate unofficially.By the time Zia died in a mysterious 1988 plane crash, the Islamization of Pakistan was well under way. The following year, the Soviet Union, preoccupied with its own implosion, pulled its demoralized troops from Afghanistan. The U.S. promptly declared victory and returned home, leaving the Afghan people to the chaotic rule of the mujahideen warlords. One crucial chapter in the story of radical Islam's ascendancy had come to a close. The one we are still living had just begun. Osama bin Laden and other leaders of the Afghan jihad now moved freely in and out of northwestern Pakistan and its Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The madrassas swelled with the children of the Zia Generation. In the rugged mountainous land shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan, the seeds of the Taliban, and al Qaeda, had been sown.And to get a glimpse of a Deobandi madrassa, here is an amusing exchange:

My new friends want to know why Americans think they are terrorists. It's a good question, and an innocent one, judging by the young and open faces of the dozen or so students sharing their evening meal with me. They don't look like terrorists as they sit in a semicircle on green mats in the courtyard of Jamia Uloom-ul-Quran, a small Deobandi madrassa located in a historic downtown mosque in Peshawar. This provincial capital served as headquarters for the Afghan resistance against the Soviets, and jihad is still a going concern here. A block away from the madrassa, at shops selling shoes and used clothes, I'd bought a 50-cent al Qaeda DVD of a suicide bomber preparing for a mission. At the end of the disc, over religious music, the bomber is shown in his car at a distant crossroads, blowing up a convoy. "We know that shop," the students say. "But we're not terrorists."A few of the students appear to be ten or younger, but most are in their late teens or early 20s. They say their dream for Pakistan is "a peaceful nation, in which justice prevails, in keeping with Islamic law." But they believe, as many here do, that Islam is under attack. By America, by the West, by India, by their own government. Under these circumstances, they say, jihad is justified. What about suicide bombing? Is it sanctioned by Islam? "You must think we have classes here in making bombs or AK-47s!" exclaims one boy, and they all laugh."In any Muslim land that's occupied, suicide bombing is allowed," says a personable older boy named Rafiullah, who has bright brown eyes and the beginnings of a beard. A few mention Iraq and Palestine as places where such bombings are justified. Another boy mentions Afghanistan. "But it's not allowed in Pakistan," Rafiullah says, "since we're not an occupied country." ("Not yet!" somebody else interjects, to laughter.) "Nobody has a right to blow you up, even if you're a non-Muslim, or an infidel. If you are here as a guest, you are welcome." He reaches to shake my hand, as if to reassure me. By the way, I grew up in Karachi in the 80' s and for me (and probably for a lot of Karachiites) Peshawar was scary conservative even then. Perhaps Alabama for someone growing up in New York city, except Alabama with lots and lots of guns (preferably AK-47s).But if the state does not provide education, what options do people have:

About a third of the students at the Deobandi madrassa in Peshawar, for instance, are poor kids from far-flung regions of the North-West Frontier Province or the tribal areas. They are like Mir Rahman, 16, a sweet-faced boy from a family of poor herders in the Mohmand Tribal Area. The family lives miles from the nearest public school, which is so badly run that few kids attend. It's not unusual in Pakistan to hear of public schools that receive no books, no supplies, and no subsidies from the government. Thousands more are "ghost schools" that exist only on paper, to line the pockets of phantom teachers and administrators. Faced with choosing between bad public schools and expensive private ones, many poor parents send their children to the madrassas, where they get a roof over their heads, three meals a day, and a Koran-based education—for free.But Zia managed to reshape the whole education system and it will take time to reverse the damage:

Pervez Hoodbhoy lives every day with the consequences of the lack of public education in Pakistan. An MIT-trained professor of nuclear physics at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, he was speaking to a graduate-level class in physics a few days after the huge earthquake that devastated Kashmir in 2005, describing the geophysical forces that produced the disaster. "When I finished, hands shot up all over the room," he recalls. "'Professor, you are wrong,' my students said. 'That earthquake was the wrath of God.' "This, he says, is the legacy of General Zia-ul-Haq, whose education ministry issued guidelines on bringing an Islamic perspective to science and other subjects in the public schools. "The Zia Generation has come of age," he says. "It isn't Islamic to teach that earthquakes are caused by the movement of tectonic plates. Instead, you are supposed to say, by the will of Allah, an earthquake happens." Today a government commission is working to modernize education, but "it goes deeper than updating textbooks," he says. "It's a matter of changing society."

Quite some change that will be. Pakistanis and their neighbors need to hope for a miracle for that to happen. It will involve intense hardowrk by atleast two generation of Pakistanis.

You can find the original article by clicking below,